The Clackamas County report is completed. The forecast is from January 2011 reports. Forecasts based on January’s recordings have been accurate more than 80% of the time for 15 years.
Note that the forecast from the January 2011 reports is italicized with our comments for the year in regular type.
Res'l Sales will increase this year over last by 5%. Prices will remain weak.
Sales did improve as forecast while prices fell by almost 7%.
Real Estats projects declining sales. Somewhere near 350 new single family homes will sell.
Sales declined as projected to 328 recorded.
3,650 existing single family detached homes will sell in 2011.
Prices will drop by at least 5%.
3,745 sold while prices declined 6%.
Check out the samples
Total Recorded Sales for16 Counties
of Oregon & Washington (Jan-Nov 2011)
of Oregon & Washington (Jan-Nov 2011)
| Units Sold | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 |
| All Res'l Recordings | 192,458 | 173,983 | 139,163 | 88,257 | 84,424 | 84,067 | 78,171 |
Letter March 1, 2006
Investors are paying too much for land. They are buying with frenzied appetites. Bidding wars are taking place in all major counties in typical auction mentality for the need to “win.” Many of the prices paid will not prove profitable.
In the past we have advised subscribers to hedge, take profits and build cash reserves. Now we add that lenders need to underwrite and determine risk most carefully or they, too, will end up with dirt.
From November 2011
The foreclosure trend is finally coming down.
See chart here
Have a great 2012.